Future permafrost degradation under climate change in a headwater catchment of central Siberia: quantitative assessment with a mechanistic modelling approach

In Decmber 2024 a paper presenting projections of climate change impacts by 2100 in a forested headwater catchment in Central Siberia close to the Evenkian Field Station has been published by Thibault Xavier, Laurent Orgogozo, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Esteban Alonso-González, Simon Gascoin, and Oleg S. Pokrovsky in The Cryosphere. In this work, the permaFoam cryo-hydrogeological simulator has been used on the TGCC supercomputer IRENE, and the simulated projections show for instance under scenario SSP5-8.5 an increase of the active layer depth by 2100 corresponding to a ∼350 km southward shift in current climatic conditions.